The Impact of Global Economic Growth on Copper Demand and Supply: Trends, Analysis, and Future Projections.
McKinsey’s analysis suggests that global electrification will drive annual copper demand to 36.6 million tonnes by 2031, while the projected supply is only around 30.1 million tonnes, resulting in a significant gap of 6.5 million tonnes by the next decade.
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UBS analysts are anticipating a 3.3% surge in global copper consumption in 2024, driven by the anticipated recovery in manufacturing in Europe and the US, which is expected to counteract destocking challenges. With limited visible copper inventories, UBS projects that prices could soar to $9,500/mt or even higher by late 2024.
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Despite supply chain challenges, UBS has provided a copper pricing forecast, citing the metal’s resilient prices above $8,200/mt, despite dampened investor sentiment in China. Downgrades in mine supply have led analysts to predict a persistent market deficit in 2024.
Copper Biggest consumer
China is world’s largest consumer of copper, with a significant demand for the metal. This high demand is driven by China’s extensive infrastructure and construction projects, as well as its manufacturing and industrial activities.
The country’s rapid urbanization and ongoing development have contributed to its substantial need for copper, making it a key player in the global copper market.
Copper Biggest Producer
Chile stands as the world’s leading copper producer, accounting for 27% of global copper output. Notably, the country hosts the world’s two largest mines, Escondida and Collahuasi.
Following Chile is Peru, another South American nation, contributing 10% to global copper production
Furthermore, the adoption of green technologies is set to significantly increase copper consumption. Goldman Sachs analyst Aditi Rai notes that green uses of copper, which accounted for 4% of consumption in 2020, are expected to rise to 17% by 2030. He also highlights the need for an additional 54% of copper by 2030 to achieve a “net-zero emission path.
